Mapped: Elections That Could Deliver 'Unprecedented' Losses for Labour

The upcoming local elections on May 7th are shaping up to be a brutal reckoning for the Labour party, with data analyzed by The Guardian indicating a potential for "unprecedented losses." This electoral landscape, if the current polling holds, spells disaster for Keir Starmer's leadership and could fundamentally reshape the political map of Britain.

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Labour is on track for its worst local election performance, data analysed by the Guardian shows, in a blow that will pile further pressure on Keir Starmer’s leadership.

In Wales, Labour's traditional stronghold, the party is predicted to fall into third place, with Reform and Plaid Cymru vying for the top spot. This collapse in support, with vote share potentially halving, is particularly alarming given Labour's dominance in the Senedd since its inception. Similarly, in Scotland, the long-term decline is expected to continue, with the Scottish National Party likely to retain power while Reform surges into second place.

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Labour’s vote share falling by more than half in Wales, enough to push the party into third place, with Reform and Plaid Cymru vying for first.

The threat to Labour is not confined to devolved nations. Across England, 136 council races are underway, with Reform, the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and independents posing significant challenges, even in Labour's heartlands. Professor Stephen Fisher of Oxford University estimates a staggering loss of 1,900 councillors for Labour – a figure that would represent 74% of the seats up for re-election and the worst local election performance for any prime minister since records began.

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Labour will lose 1,900 councillors on 7 May – 74% of the number of seats the party currently holds that are up for re-election.

This potential electoral catastrophe for Labour is mirrored by the projected gains for other parties. Reform is forecast to triple its local representation, gaining an estimated 2,260 councillors. The Greens and Liberal Democrats are also expected to make notable gains. Even the Conservatives are bracing for significant losses, indicating widespread voter dissatisfaction with the two main parties. The implications for Labour's leadership are stark, with a result of this magnitude likely to reignite calls for a challenge against Starmer.

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Reform gains at last year’s local elections amounted to a record-breaking 41% of the seats up for election. Now they have extended their polling lead, Reform should do even better this year if they can maintain the same conversion rate for opinion poll ratings into council seat gains.