Merz's struggles could empower AfD, reshaping German and European politics

Friedrich Merz's political standing is precarious, raising questions about the future of Germany's established political order and its implications for Poland. Observers are watching closely to see if Merz's potential downfall will lead to a prolonged collapse of the current German political system or if last-minute efforts will be made to salvage it before 2029.

The upcoming elections in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt could mark a significant turning point. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is poised for a strong showing, potentially gaining full control in the state. With growing support across Germany, this could signal the end of the "firewall", an informal agreement among mainstream parties to exclude the AfD from governing coalitions.

Should the AfD gain control of even one state, or if a coalition with them becomes a possibility at the federal level, it would likely intensify political polarization and internal tensions within Germany. This instability could weaken Germany, creating opportunities for other European nations, including Poland, to leverage. In the longer term, an AfD government presents a significant challenge, with its projected cultural counter-revolution potentially clashing with existing state structures and parts of society.

Foreign policy could become a key area for the AfD to compensate for domestic challenges and foster a "new German pride." Potential shifts include anti-American and pro-Russian stances. The article suggests that if America, post-Trump, does not integrate Central Europe into its global security framework, Poland could face serious difficulties. The rise of the AfD also brings concerns about a German-led consolidation of Central Europe, which could reignite territorial issues, and the idea of European autonomy centered around a nuclear-armed Germany.