Planet Heating Up: How El Niño Could Change Weather in Kazakhstan

El Niño is gaining strength, and the World Meteorological Organization says it could persist through February 2027 with almost complete certainty. The phenomenon may reach very strong intensity and peak toward the end of 2026, with effects continuing into 2027.

El Niño occurs when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than usual. Those changes influence atmospheric circulation and can reshape weather far from the Pacific. In the Niño 3.4 zone, surface temperatures averaged 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal from May to July 2026 and reached 2 degrees above normal in July. During some weeks between late July and mid-August, the difference rose to 2.2 to 2.6 degrees. Temperatures beneath the ocean surface exceeded normal levels by more than 8 degrees in some areas.

A very strong El Niño can alter temperature and precipitation patterns around the world. The WMO warns of greater risks of extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall, with flooding possible in some regions. The effects will not be uniform, however. They depend on the region, the season and other climate processes, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans.

The current episode is drawing particular attention because it is developing while the global ocean is already unusually warm. El Niño occurs naturally every few years and is not itself caused by humans, but its cycle may add to temperature extremes linked to global warming.

For Kazakhstan, the effects are indirect and difficult to determine from El Niño alone. Kazhydromet specialists told Tengrinews.kz that the phenomenon could influence broad atmospheric circulation and increase the likelihood of climate anomalies, including unusually warm periods, irregular precipitation and isolated droughts. They cautioned that Kazakhstan will not necessarily experience extreme heat or drought, since local conditions must be assessed alongside regional forecasts and other atmospheric processes.