Popular protests may be inevitable, warns Iran's Supreme National Security Council

A sobering assessment from within Iran's highest security circles, as reported by Iran International, reveals deep-seated concerns over the nation's economic fragility and the looming threat of renewed popular unrest. The Supreme National Security Council convened following intelligence reports highlighting the dire economic situation, exacerbated by the two-week-old US naval blockade. The consensus among security agencies is stark: the Iranian economy cannot endure more than six to eight weeks under the current pressure.

The intelligence briefings paint a grim picture. Widespread unemployment, driven partly by recent government actions and a significant internet outage impacting the digital workforce, is a major catalyst. Projections indicate two million more private sector employees could lose their jobs by the end of spring. Furthermore, the closure of vital industries in the oil, petrochemical, and steel sectors, with reconstruction estimated to take years, signals a long-term economic crisis. The disruption to financial markets, including banks and stock exchanges, has rendered price discovery nearly impossible, adding to the public's economic anxiety.

This confluence of factors has led security agencies to conclude that popular protests are not just possible, but inevitable. The council is particularly worried that such demonstrations, whether occurring during ongoing talks with the US or following a ceasefire extension, could pose an existential threat to the Islamic Republic. The article also notes the potential for supporters of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to capitalize on the discontent, adding another layer of political complexity to the unfolding crisis. From Tehran's perspective, the economic pain is palpable, and the government's ability to manage public anger while navigating international pressure is being severely tested.