Putin Misses Donbas Capture Deadlines 15 Times Since War Began

Russian President Vladimir Putin has set and missed at least 15 deadlines for the complete capture of Donbas since the full-scale invasion began, according to analysts citing Western and Ukrainian intelligence.

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The Kremlin's military goals remain unrealistic.

Recent reports indicate that Russian military leadership had promised Putin by last August that the Ukrainian front would collapse by October or November, with the Donetsk region fully occupied by mid-2025. However, by spring 2026, this target shifted to autumn of the current year. By summer, the promise was for full Donbas control before winter. Despite these assurances, Russian forces currently control only 79.89% of the Donetsk region's territory.

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The Russian forces will likely not be able to capture Donbas by the end of 2026, and perhaps never.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) deems Kremlin's military objectives unrealistic. In the past year, Russian forces captured only 0.8% of Ukrainian territory, and just 0.6% in 2024. Offensive rates have been as slow as 15-70 meters per day on some fronts, with the offensive practically stalled this year. "DeepState" data shows minimal territorial gains, even with a reported 60% increase in "meat assaults" compared to winter and early spring.

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Some Russian General Staff members also consider V. Putin's goals unrealistic and believe the war for Donbas will continue into 2027.

ISW analysts project that Russia is unlikely to capture Donbas by the end of 2026, and possibly never. Some Russian General Staff members reportedly view Putin's goals as unattainable, anticipating the Donbas war to continue into 2027, according to sources close to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Despite Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, the situation on the front has not significantly shifted in Ukraine's favor, notes Dara Massicot of the Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. She observes Ukraine conducting active defense while Russia attempts to compensate by increasing troop numbers in priority areas, particularly Donetsk. Massicot highlights that Russia's ground offensive tactics in 2026 remain largely unchanged, relying on infantry infiltration with small assault groups, while the expanding drone-controlled danger zone makes troop movement and supply delivery increasingly difficult for both sides.

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Ukraine's forces are conducting active defense on most front lines, and Russia is trying to compensate by increasing the number of units in priority directions, primarily in the Donetsk region.