Trump's Approval Rating Hits Second-Term Low Ahead of US Midterms

U.S. President Donald Trump's approval ratings have reached their lowest ebb during his second term, according to recent surveys, intensifying concerns for Republicans just three months before the crucial 2026 midterm elections. While Trump himself is not on the ballot, the elections are widely seen as a referendum on his presidency, with Republican candidates defending his record and Democrats campaigning against his policies.

National polls indicate Trump is struggling, with his approval rating standing at 36 percent and disapproval at 59 percent, according to U.S. News. Major polls from AP-NORC, Pew Research Center, and the American Research Group corroborate this trend of majority disapproval. The situation is equally challenging at the state level, where Trump's net approval rating, approval minus disapproval, has turned negative in every major swing state, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Ohio.

Florida has seen a significant drop, moving from a positive net approval of nine points at the start of Trump's second term to minus 21. Ohio fell from plus eight to minus 13, and Nevada shifted from neutral to minus 21. Political analysts suggest these declines could complicate Republican efforts to maintain control of Congress. "Being underwater by double digits in major battlegrounds means GOP incumbents can't count on Trump to lift them across the finish line," Brett Loyd, co-founder of the Independent Center, told U.S. News.

Public dissatisfaction appears linked to several key policy decisions. A Civiqs survey revealed opposition to U.S. military involvement in Iran, alongside disapproval of recent military strikes, new tariffs, and the Republican-backed spending package. Further polling by Quinnipiac University found 60 percent of voters opposed military action against Iran, while CNN/SSRS reported that three-quarters of Americans believe the conflict has not been worth its cost. The Economist's approval tracker shows Trump's net approval rating at minus 25, the lowest of his current presidency, with 35 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval. The administration's decision to resume military strikes on Iran in mid-July is believed to have accelerated this decline in public support.

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Being underwater by double digits in major battlegrounds means GOP incumbents can't count on Trump to lift them across the finish line.