Turkey, Saudi, Pakistan defense pact complicates Israel normalization hopes, expert tells 'Post'

A new defense pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan aims to bolster collective deterrence against any act of aggression, stipulating that an attack on one member will be considered an attack on all. The agreement was signed in Mecca on Friday, following a period of heightened tensions and attacks from Iran and its proxies targeting Gulf states.

Dr. Yoel Guzansky, head of the Gulf Research Field at the Institute for National Security Studies, suggests Saudi Arabia's participation stems from a desire for greater leverage and options amid declining regional trust in Washington. "Countries need stability. Saudis need stability. It’s also a sign of, let's say, question marks over the US’s readiness and ability to assist the Gulf states," Guzansky explained. He added, "The Saudis feel that they cannot count on the US... So they need more. This is hedging."

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Countries need stability. Saudis need stability. It’s also a sign of, let's say, question marks over the US’s readiness and ability to assist the Gulf states. The Saudis feel that they cannot count on the US, not because the US doesn’t want to, but because this administration, like almost every administration, has political, economic and military constraints and limitations. So they need more. This is hedging.

While some anticipated that Iran's actions might push Gulf states closer to Israel for defensive capabilities, Guzansky noted that Jerusalem's growing reputation as a "hegemon" and its involvement in "endless wars" makes such an embrace difficult for Riyadh, which prioritizes stability. This perception of Israel as not being a viable partner for Riyadh complicates potential normalization efforts.

Guzansky expressed concern that the strong anti-Israel stances of Turkey and Pakistan within the new pact could influence Saudi Arabia. "I’m worried because the Turks and Pakistanis have a really, really anti-Israel stance that might affect Saudi Arabia. I’m hoping that Saudi Arabia will affect them, but it would perhaps be too naive to think so," he stated. Although the agreement is not officially directed at Israel, the involvement of countries with hostile positions toward the Jewish state presents a significant challenge to normalization hopes.

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I’m worried because the Turks and Pakistanis have a really, really anti-Israel stance that might affect Saudi Arabia. I’m hoping that Saudi Arabia will affect them, but it would perhaps be too naive to think so.