Ukraine fears Russian mobilization; expert warns defense falters without drones

Ukraine's military has made strides in improving its corps-level coordination, leading to more effective defensive operations against Russian forces. However, this progress is uneven, with some corps still requiring significant staff support. Companies employing former NATO senior officers have aided in streamlining these organizational efforts.

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The basic change is that the Ukrainian corps system has finally started to function better. Coordination between brigades operating within corps is much better, and corps commanders have a very well-organized way of conducting operations.

Despite improvements in coordination, the fundamental problem of soldier recruitment persists. Ukraine struggles to encourage voluntary enlistment, relying heavily on mobilization, which has been controversial. A growing concern is the number of mobilized soldiers receiving medical exemptions, raising suspicions of illegal document acquisition. This results in an overstaffing of rear units while front-line units suffer from a severe troop deficit.

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No, that problem has not been solved. It is very complex. Ukrainian authorities still find it difficult to encourage men to voluntarily join the army, so a significant portion of new soldiers join through mobilization, sometimes conducted in a coercive and controversial manner.

Public sentiment also plays a role, with some Ukrainians hesitant to continue fighting due to disillusionment with the state or a belief that individual efforts cannot alter the war's course. Concerns about the quality of training and command structures are also prevalent, particularly regarding the high risks associated with infantry service.

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In the last few months, it has also become an increasingly serious problem that many mobilized soldiers receive certificates of unfitness for service on the front line due to their health condition. There are suspicions that some of these documents are obtained illegally.

Looking ahead, the effectiveness of drone technology and defense against ballistic missiles will be crucial. The potential for a Russian mobilization adds a significant layer of uncertainty to the conflict's trajectory. Konrad Muzyka, owner of Rochan Consulting, emphasizes that without sufficient drone capabilities and robust air defense, Ukraine's ability to withstand Russian pressure is severely compromised.

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Infantry service is perceived as particularly dangerous, sometimes almost like a one-way ticket. Soldiers fear they may be left behind.