War experts: Tuapse – what now?

The ongoing conflict sees Ukraine continuing its strategic strikes against Russian military and industrial infrastructure. Recent reports indicate significant damage to oil processing facilities in Tuapse, with an estimated 61% of reservoirs affected. Furthermore, a crucial storage base for Iskander missile systems in Crimea was reportedly targeted, signaling Ukraine's persistent efforts to degrade Russia's offensive capabilities.

These strikes are part of a broader pattern of Ukrainian operations aimed at disrupting Russian logistics and military assets. The targeting of the Iskander base in Crimea, in particular, represents the ninth such strike against deep-strike capabilities on the peninsula since February, challenging Russia's narrative of invincibility and its vaunted A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) systems.

Meanwhile, intense ground fighting persists along the eastern front. While Russian forces have reported marginal gains near Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk, Ukrainian defenses appear to be holding firm in most sectors, including Lyman and Kupiansk. Ukraine's air defense forces demonstrated effectiveness by intercepting or neutralizing 95 out of 123 incoming long-range attack drones launched by Russia overnight. Concurrently, Ukraine has also conducted its own drone attacks, reportedly targeting a drone unit's warehouse in the Belgorod region, indicating a reciprocal escalation in drone warfare.