Iran war threatens next harvest, UN official says. Which countries are most at risk?

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a stark warning regarding the impact of the ongoing conflict on global food security. Viorel Gutu, an assistant director general at FAO, highlighted that the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for agricultural supplies, is already causing significant shockwaves worldwide, including increased input costs and reduced availability.

Gutu's remarks, made on the sidelines of a regional summit in Kazakhstan, underscore the precariousness of the global food supply chain. The Strait of Hormuz's critical role cannot be overstated, as it handles a substantial portion of the world's essential agricultural inputs. The disruption here has far-reaching consequences, particularly for nations heavily reliant on imports.

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The Strait of Hormuz is the key global route accounting for 20 to 45 per cent of the global traffic of essential agricultural inputs.

While many countries face the immediate threat of shortages and price hikes, China's recent announcement of an expected increase in its domestic grain and oilseed yield offers a contrasting perspective. Supported by an advanced crop forecast system, this development could provide some buffer against the global turmoil, though the broader implications for international markets remain a concern.

This situation is particularly relevant for countries in Central Asia and Europe, regions Gutu oversees. The FAO's assessment serves as a critical reminder of the interconnectedness of global trade, security, and food production, emphasizing the need for international cooperation to mitigate the risks posed by geopolitical instability.

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many countries were already “experiencing the shock”, including high input costs and low availability.