PH and BN in tight race for Negeri Sembilan state election

The Negeri Sembilan state election campaign is witnessing a fierce contest between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN), with Perikatan Nasional (PN) lagging behind, according to Vodus Research.

Vodus Research projects that the election outcome remains open, hinging on campaign performance, voter turnout, and the ability to manage competition in key constituencies. Currently, PH leads the popular vote statewide with 42%, followed by BN at 35% and PN at 7%. Independent candidates garnered 2%, with 14% of respondents undecided or unwilling to disclose their choice.

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The current model projects PH leading in 17 seats, BN in 15 seats and PN in two seats, while two other seats see competition between BN and PN still undecided.

The research model forecasts PH leading in 17 seats and BN in 15, with PN projected to win two. Two seats remain too close to call between BN and PN. A simple majority requires 19 of the 36 State Legislative Assembly seats, meaning neither PH nor BN has yet secured enough to form the state government. Vodus Research founder Dr. Kelvin Goh noted the possibility of a hung assembly after the August 1 election.

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Although BN clearly leads in 15 seats compared to PH's nine, PH is now ahead in eight out of 10 marginal seats, increasing its projection to 17 seats.

While PH's popular vote lead is significant, Goh cautioned that it may not translate directly into a majority of seats due to the importance of vote distribution across constituencies. "Although BN clearly leads in 15 seats compared to PH's nine, PH is now ahead in eight out of 10 marginal seats, increasing its projection to 17 seats," he stated.

Analysis of voter support reveals ethnic divides. Among Malay voters, BN leads with 41%, followed by PH at 27% and PN at 25%. In contrast, PH commands 59% of Chinese voters, with BN at 20% and PN at 9%. For other ethnic groups, PH garners 42% support, BN has 32%, and PN has 21%.

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Among Bumiputera voters, BN leads with 41 percent followed by PH at 27 percent and PN at 25 percent.

Regarding the popularity of the Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun, he received a positive rating of 32%. However, this is lower than the rating achieved by the Johor Menteri Besar, Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi, during the Johor state election. Cost of living has emerged as the primary issue in the election campaign, with 55% of voters citing it as a major concern.

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In the Chinese voter community, PH leads with 59 percent compared to BN at 20 percent and PN at nine percent.