Poland's Constitutional Ambitions: Referendum on EU Climate Policy Part of President's Strategic Plan

President Andrzej Duda's recent proposals for a constitutional overhaul and a referendum on EU climate policy have sparked considerable debate in Poland. While presented as initiatives to foster compromise and address national concerns, many political observers, including analysts cited by Rzeczpospolita, view them as calculated moves within a larger "Nawrocki algorithm" – a strategy likely conceived between the June 2025 election results and the August 2025 swearing-in.

The core of this strategy, according to the analysis, appears to be President Duda's genuine preference for a presidential system and his administration's proactive stance in anticipating potential political shifts. The constitutional change, requiring a two-thirds majority in the Sejm, faces significant hurdles given the current parliamentary arithmetic. This makes the proposal seem less about immediate legislative success and more about setting a political agenda and defining the President's role, especially in light of his veto power over legislation deemed inconsistent with his electoral promises.

From our vantage point at Rzeczpospolita, these moves are particularly interesting because they represent a controlled form of polarization. By introducing topics like constitutional reform and EU climate policy—the latter likely to face Senate opposition—the President forces political actors to take sides. This allows him to project an image of seeking compromise while simultaneously asserting his own agenda against a government he perceives as adversarial. The President's own words on May 3rd, lamenting the excessive political conflict, seem to frame these initiatives as attempts to de-escalate tensions, even as they strategically engage the political landscape. This narrative is uniquely Polish, reflecting a deep-seated tension between the presidency and the government, and highlighting how presidential actions are interpreted within our specific political context, often viewed through the lens of strategic maneuvering rather than simple policy proposals.

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Powiedzmy sobie szczerze, że żyjemy dzisiaj w momencie, w którym konflikt polityczny poszedł za daleko, niszczy wspólnotę, niszczy rodziny, przekracza wszelkie możliwe granice. Poszedł za daleko, bo niszczy ustrój i fundamenty państwa polskiego