Polls show Lula leading Bolsonaro in 23 Brazilian states

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in 23 Brazilian states and the Federal District, according to new voter intention polls released by Quaest. The survey, which focuses on the first round of the 2026 presidential election, reveals distinct regional strengths for both candidates.

Lula's strongest performance is in Maranhão, where he garners 58% of voter intentions compared to Bolsonaro's 20%. Conversely, Roraima is Senator Bolsonaro's stronghold, with 52% of intentions against Lula's 17%. The polls also highlight a unique scenario in Goiás, where former governor Ronaldo Caiado leads the presidential race with 32% of intentions, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (27%) and Lula (20%).

The data provides a detailed breakdown of the presidential contest across various states. For instance, in Acre, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 42% against Lula's 25%. In Alagoas, Lula leads with 44% to Bolsonaro's 29%. The Amapá poll shows Lula at 36% and Bolsonaro at 33%, while in Amazonas, Lula leads 38% to 35%.

In Bahia, Lula commands a significant 50% of intentions, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 17%. The report also includes data for other states such as Espírito Santo, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Paraíba, Paraná, Pernambuco, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and São Paulo, detailing the specific percentages for each candidate in these regions. The poll also accounts for undecided voters and blank or null votes in each state.