Seoul District Mayoral Races Take Shape Ahead of Local Elections; 'Han River Belt' Emerges as Key Battleground

As the June 3 local elections approach, the political landscape in Seoul is taking shape, with most of the 25 district mayoral races seeing their party matchups finalized. The Democratic Party, buoyed by recent election trends and national approval ratings, anticipates an advantage. However, they remain wary of potential voter conservatism stemming from asset-related issues. Conversely, the People Power Party, while acknowledging a challenging position, is strategically focusing on the "Han River Belt" – a crucial electoral battleground – to turn the tide, leveraging debates around real estate regulations.

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The Seoul elections always have last-minute variables.

The Democratic Party has confirmed candidates in 24 districts, while the People Power Party has done the same in 24, with only one district each remaining undecided. This contrasts sharply with the 2018 elections, where the Democratic Party swept 24 of the 25 mayoral seats, and the 2022 elections, which saw the People Power Party win 17. Recent by-elections, triggered by the disqualification of a People Power Party mayor and the resignation of a Democratic Party mayor, have seen the latter reclaim two seats, adding another layer of complexity to the upcoming contest.

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The situation doesn't seem like it will be like the 2018 local elections (where the Democratic Party won all but one district mayor seat).

Both major parties acknowledge the significant impact of real estate issues, particularly tax-related debates like the long-term holding special deduction, on voters in the Han River Belt. The People Power Party is actively using recent government statements on real estate regulations to frame the issue as one of increased tax burdens. The Democratic Party, however, plans to shift the focus to residential environment policies, aiming to regain control of the narrative rather than getting drawn into the opposition's attacks.

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Seocho, Songpa, Gangnam, and Yongsan are the most winnable areas, while Gangdong, Mapo, and Yangcheon are considered competitive.

Internal party dynamics also present challenges. The People Power Party faces organizational hurdles in areas like Songpa and Yeongdeungpo, where conflicts between party leaders and incumbent mayors, or post-nomination disputes, have hampered unified campaign efforts. These internal struggles could impact their ability to mobilize effectively on election day. The outcome of the Seoul mayoral race is also expected to have a significant ' 연동 효과' (linking effect) on the district mayoral elections, as voters may cast ballots based on their preference for the mayoral candidate due to lower name recognition for district-level contenders. This could lead to unpredictable results if the gap between the mayoral candidates narrows.

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The Han River Belt is an area with many swing voters, and the tide could shift depending on real estate issues, especially the debate over long-term holding special deductions.