Fewer Work Permits for Immigrants, Iran's Proposal, and a Weakening Warsaw Stock Exchange

In Poland, the government's decision to significantly curtail work permits for foreign nationals marks a notable shift in its migration policy. While the number of foreign workers in Poland has surpassed 1.3 million, indicating a persistent demand in the labor market, the new regulations, requiring work visas for individuals from countries like Georgia, Venezuela, and Colombia, are raising alarms among entrepreneurs who cite overly complex and time-consuming procedures.

Internationally, the focus is on the US's careful consideration of Iran's peace proposal. The plan's call for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz and a long-term ceasefire is being weighed against the critical issue of Iran's nuclear program, a key concern for the United States. Gulf states, however, appear more receptive, prioritizing regional stability and the resumption of oil trade.

Economic forecasts are increasingly grim, with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent crude oil to reach $90 per barrel in Q4. Persistent geopolitical tensions and the potential for supply disruptions could further inflate prices, exacerbating inflation and slowing global economic growth. This situation underscores the growing importance of resource security, as both the US and Europe ramp up efforts to secure critical raw material supplies.

On the domestic front, the Warsaw Stock Exchange is experiencing a downturn, with the WIG and WIG20 indices showing a series of losses. This underperformance contrasts with global market trends, which have seen gains, particularly in the technology sector. While a stable Polish złoty might mitigate further declines, experts suggest that indices could still fall, with key support levels near previous peaks.