Putin tells Trump Russia's victory in Ukraine is inevitable

In a recent phone call, Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged with former US President Donald Trump, using the conversation to reaffirm his unwavering commitment to achieving his initial war objectives in Ukraine. Putin also sought to project an image of inevitable Russian victory, a narrative that analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have characterized as false.

“

Russian President Vladimir Putin used his April 29 phone call with US President Donald Trump to reaffirm his commitment to achieving initial war goals and to advance his cognitive warfare efforts, falsely presenting Ukraine's defense as collapsing and Russia's victory in Ukraine as inevitable.

According to ISW, Putin's claims that Ukraine's defense is collapsing and that Russia's triumph is a foregone conclusion are part of his cognitive warfare efforts. The report highlights that Ukrainian forces have significantly slowed Russian advances along the front lines, thereby weakening Russia's anticipated spring-summer offensive. Despite these realities, Putin continues to insist on Russia's strategic initiative and its eventual success, even while expressing a preference for diplomatic solutions.

The Kremlin's strategy appears to involve portraying Ukraine as an intransigent party in peace negotiations, unwilling to capitulate to Russia's demands. This narrative, repeated to Trump, conveniently omits Russia's inability to offer significant concessions. Putin's assertions that Russia is performing well on the battlefield are intended to justify his demand for Ukraine's surrender, a claim that contradicts the ongoing Ukrainian efforts to impede Russian progress and inflict substantial losses.

“

Putin and other Kremlin officials consistently try to portray Ukraine as an intransigent party to peace negotiations who refuses to capitulate to Putin’s demands, despite Russia’s inability to offer significant concessions in return, and Putin reiterated this to Trump on April 29.

Furthermore, the ISW report suggests that the Kremlin is attempting to mitigate the growing domestic costs of the war, including economic challenges, mounting casualties, and difficulties in recruitment. By seeking to persuade Trump and Western nations to compel Ukraine's capitulation, Putin may be aiming to conceal Russia's military and economic setbacks. This diplomatic maneuver, if successful, would allow Russia to achieve its objectives without acknowledging its failures on the ground.

“

It is highly likely that the Kremlin is attempting to reduce some of these costs by trying to convince Trump and the West to force Ukraine to capitulate as they failed to achieve during the full-scale invasion, thereby masking their military and economic failures.